Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:08 am at Oakland); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 41% (calm day: 27%). Best bet: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 14:30, 25% on time.

Nonstops today


WN 2115 Southwest	OAK 12:10	AUS 17:43	44%	6%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OAK 12:01 → PDX 13:44AS 3045 · flown by SkyWest	3h 55m Portland	PDX 17:39 → AUS 23:49AS 1370	9h 48m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	OAK 16:15 → ABQ 19:30WN 237	3h 00m Albuquerque	ABQ 22:30 → AUS 01:20 +1WN 4074	7h 05m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	OAK 14:55 → DEN 18:20WN 3044	2h 40m Denver	DEN 21:00 → AUS 00:13 +1WN 2695	7h 18m	99%	76%
Southwest Details →	OAK 13:25 → DEN 16:50WN 3043	2h 06m Denver	DEN 18:56 → AUS 22:08WN 1129	6h 43m	99%	74%
Southwest Details →	OAK 07:05 → BUR 08:20WN 3035	2h 40m Burbank	BUR 11:00 → AUS 16:00WN 771	6h 55m	100%	74%
Southwest Details →	OAK 11:00 → DAL 16:25WN 3014	3h 10m Dallas	DAL 19:35 → AUS 20:45WN 187	7h 45m	100%	73%
Southwest Details →	OAK 07:30 → LGB 08:55WN 264	3h 40m Long Beach	LGB 12:35 → AUS 17:30WN 2476	8h 00m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	2h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → AUS 21:30DL 2728	7h 00m	98%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	OAK 16:45 → LAS 18:20WN 4539	1h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 19:25 → AUS 00:10 +1WN 3569	5h 25m	74%	49%
Southwest Details →	OAK 18:25 → SAN 20:00WN 3077	55m San Diego	SAN 20:55 → AUS 01:49 +1WN 3661	5h 24m	58%	38%
Southwest Details →	OAK 14:30 → LAS 16:05WN 577	50m Las Vegas	LAS 16:55 → AUS 21:45WN 2184	5h 15m	51%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON