Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:50 am at Oakland)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 22%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3435 at 10:50, 17%.

Nonstops today


WN 3435 Southwest	OAK 10:50	BOI 13:30	17%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 803 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 13:30	BOI 16:00	28%	3%	0.1%	81%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OAK 07:52 → PDX 09:29AS 2298 · flown by Horizon	1h 01m Portland	PDX 10:30 → BOI 12:49AS 2089 · flown by Horizon	3h 57m	96%	92%
Alaska Details →	OAK 14:55 → SEA 17:00AS 1464	2h 59m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → BOI 22:24AS 2034 · flown by Horizon	6h 29m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:00 → LAS 06:30WN 2325	2h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 09:15 → BOI 12:06WN 2301	6h 06m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:04 → BOI 12:20DL 2095	5h 20m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	2h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → BOI 00:05 +1DL 2111	6h 00m	99%	81%
Alaska Details →	OAK 12:01 → PDX 13:44AS 3045 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m Portland	PDX 14:58 → BOI 17:16AS 342	4h 15m	97%	81%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:05 → PHX 07:00WN 3066	1h 05m Phoenix	PHX 08:05 → BOI 11:15WN 184	5h 10m	96%	80%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:22 → SEA 08:26AS 491	1h 33m Seattle	SEA 09:59 → BOI 12:26AS 2230 · flown by Horizon	5h 04m	96%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	OAK 18:25 → SAN 20:00WN 3077	1h 05m San Diego	SAN 21:05 → BOI 00:25 +1WN 644	5h 00m	63%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON