Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:50 am at Oakland)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3435 Southwest	OAK 10:50	BOI 13:30	12%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 803 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 13:30	BOI 16:00	21%	3%	0.1%	81%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OAK 07:52 → PDX 09:29AS 2298 · flown by Horizon	1h 01m Portland	PDX 10:30 → BOI 12:49AS 2089 · flown by Horizon	3h 57m	96%	92%
Alaska Details →	OAK 14:55 → SEA 17:00AS 1464	2h 59m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → BOI 22:24AS 2034 · flown by Horizon	6h 29m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	OAK 08:15 → DEN 11:40WN 3042	1h 10m Denver	DEN 12:50 → BOI 14:45WN 1491	5h 30m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	2h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → BOI 00:05 +1DL 2111	6h 00m	99%	81%
Southwest Details →	OAK 11:05 → BUR 12:15WN 1268	3h 40m Burbank	BUR 15:55 → BOI 18:45WN 776	6h 40m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	OAK 12:01 → PDX 13:44AS 3045 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m Portland	PDX 14:58 → BOI 17:16AS 342	4h 15m	98%	78%
Southwest Details →	OAK 16:45 → LAS 18:20WN 4539	3h 55m Las Vegas	LAS 22:15 → BOI 01:06 +1WN 2253	7h 21m	100%	75%
Southwest Details →	OAK 14:55 → DEN 18:20WN 3044	2h 35m Denver	DEN 20:55 → BOI 23:00WN 3806	7h 05m	99%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:57 → SEA 08:58AS 705	59m Seattle	SEA 09:57 → BOI 12:26AS 357	4h 29m	70%	45%
Southwest Details →	OAK 18:25 → SAN 20:00WN 3077	1h 05m San Diego	SAN 21:05 → BOI 00:25 +1WN 644	5h 00m	63%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON