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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Midway, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → OAK 05:10 → MDW 11:15WN 2744 1h 30m Chicago MDW 12:45 → BWI 15:42WN 2848 7h 32m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 05:30 → AUS 10:55WN 3034 3h 40m Austin AUS 14:35 → BWI 18:41WN 2255 10h 11m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 05:45 → DEN 09:15WN 3041 2h 30m Denver DEN 11:45 → BWI 17:15WN 4434 8h 30m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 12:15 → LAS 13:50WN 2205 2h 40m Las Vegas LAS 16:30 → BWI 00:10 +1WN 2206 8h 55m 100% 79%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 19:00 → ONT 20:20WN 271 1h 20m Ontario ONT 21:40 → BWI 05:30 +1WN 3143 7h 30m 91% 78%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 06:20 → SAN 07:55WN 3073 3h 20m San Diego SAN 11:15 → BWI 19:20WN 3390 10h 00m 100% 77%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 17:30 → LAX 18:55WN 4229 2h 55m Los Angeles LAX 21:50 → BWI 05:45 +1WN 2385 9h 15m 97% 76%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 05:05 → PHX 07:00WN 3066 2h 30m Phoenix PHX 09:30 → BWI 16:55WN 1039 8h 50m 96% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → OAK 13:55 → HOU 19:40WN 4244 55m Houston HOU 20:35 → BWI 00:40 +1WN 1961 7h 45m 63% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON