Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: WN 1389 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day


WN 1389 Southwest	OAK 06:00	DAL 11:27	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3014 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 11:00	DAL 16:25	20%	3%	0.6%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OAK 09:15 → BUR 10:25WN 3036	1h 20m Burbank	BUR 11:45 → DAL 16:50WN 2921	5h 35m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:05 → PHX 07:00WN 3066	1h 06m Phoenix	PHX 08:06 → DAL 12:36WN 1469	5h 31m	96%	84%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:45 → DEN 09:15WN 3041	1h 33m Denver	DEN 10:48 → DAL 13:46WN 1408	6h 01m	99%	84%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:00 → LAS 06:30WN 2325	1h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 07:50 → DAL 12:40WN 1317	5h 40m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:10 → MDW 11:15WN 2744	1h 05m Chicago	MDW 12:20 → DAL 14:35WN 2757	7h 25m	98%	83%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:30 → AUS 10:55WN 3034	3h 07m Austin	AUS 14:02 → DAL 15:12WN 3857	7h 42m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	OAK 08:15 → DEN 11:40WN 3042	1h 13m Denver	DEN 12:53 → DAL 15:52WN 4758	5h 37m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	OAK 13:55 → HOU 19:40WN 4244	2h 20m Houston	HOU 22:00 → DAL 23:10WN 64	7h 15m	98%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	OAK 13:55 → HOU 19:40WN 4244	50m Houston	HOU 20:30 → DAL 21:40WN 54	5h 45m	62%	48%
Southwest Details →	OAK 15:45 → SAN 17:20WN 1926	50m San Diego	SAN 18:10 → DAL 23:15WN 3492	5h 30m	61%	43%
Southwest Details →	OAK 12:15 → LAS 13:50WN 2205	50m Las Vegas	LAS 14:40 → DAL 19:25WN 4489	5h 10m	52%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON