Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3160 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3160 OAK 05:40 → DEN 09:08 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3044 OAK 14:55 → DEN 18:20 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3160 Southwest	OAK 05:40	DEN 09:08	6%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 3041 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 05:45	DEN 09:15	7%	1%	0.4%	84%
WN 3161 Southwest	OAK 08:11	DEN 11:43	10%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 3042 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 08:15	DEN 11:40	11%	1%	0.4%	100%worse than usual
WN 2418 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 19:40	DEN 23:10	22%	4%	0.5%	67%
WN 3043 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 13:25	DEN 16:50	25%	3%	0.4%	39%
WN 3044 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 14:55	DEN 18:20	28%	4%	0.4%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON