Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:26 am at Oakland)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3183 Southwest	OAK 15:35	GEG 17:40	22%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 804 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 15:00	GEG 16:55	24%	3%	0.1%	65%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OAK 06:22 → SEA 08:26AS 491	1h 29m Seattle	SEA 09:55 → GEG 11:00AS 2200 · flown by Horizon	4h 38m	95%	85%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:00 → LAS 06:30WN 2325	2h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 09:15 → GEG 11:38WN 2061	6h 38m	100%	85%
Alaska Details →	OAK 07:52 → PDX 09:29AS 2298 · flown by Horizon	1h 01m Portland	PDX 10:30 → GEG 11:45AS 250	3h 53m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452	6h 12m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	OAK 12:01 → PDX 13:44AS 3045 · flown by SkyWest	3h 47m Portland	PDX 17:31 → GEG 18:44AS 452	6h 43m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	OAK 06:20 → SAN 07:55WN 3073	3h 20m San Diego	SAN 11:15 → GEG 13:55WN 955	7h 35m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	3h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:15 → GEG 23:55DL 1466	6h 50m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	2h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:30 → GEG 18:13DL 1024	5h 43m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OAK 12:01 → PDX 13:44AS 3045 · flown by SkyWest	46m Portland	PDX 14:30 → GEG 15:41AS 3262 · flown by SkyWest	3h 40m	60%	52%
Alaska Details →	OAK 14:55 → SEA 17:00AS 1464	51m Seattle	SEA 17:51 → GEG 19:00AS 1433	4h 05m	51%	35%
Alaska Details →	OAK 19:13 → PDX 20:50AS 2096 · flown by Horizon	1h 00m Portland	PDX 21:50 → GEG 22:59AS 1356	3h 46m	32%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON