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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 05:05, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2031 Southwest OAK 07:50 HOU 13:38 15% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 4244 Southwest Flight history → OAK 13:55 HOU 19:40 31% 5% 0.6% 31%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → OAK 06:00 → ONT 07:25WN 4421 2h 15m Ontario ONT 09:40 → HOU 14:50WN 4868 6h 50m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 05:00 → LAS 06:30WN 2325 1h 15m Las Vegas LAS 07:45 → HOU 12:55WN 981 5h 55m 96% 83%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 05:05 → PHX 07:00WN 3066 1h 05m Phoenix PHX 08:05 → HOU 12:40WN 2833 5h 35m 96% 81%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 10:50 → ONT 12:10WN 3062 2h 30m Ontario ONT 14:40 → HOU 19:52WN 4907 7h 02m 100% 76%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 05:10 → MDW 11:15WN 2744 3h 45m Chicago MDW 15:00 → HOU 17:35WN 1124 10h 25m 100% 76%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 05:45 → DEN 09:15WN 3041 1h 25m Denver DEN 10:40 → HOU 14:06WN 1597 6h 21m 98% 76%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 19:45 → LAX 21:10WN 2396 2h 30m Los Angeles LAX 23:40 → HOU 05:00 +1WN 2402 7h 15m 98% 75%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 08:15 → DEN 11:40WN 3042 2h 50m Denver DEN 14:30 → HOU 17:56WN 4525 7h 41m 100% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → OAK 12:15 → LAS 13:50WN 2205 51m Las Vegas LAS 14:41 → HOU 19:41WN 3524 5h 26m 53% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON