Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:30, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	2h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847	7h 59m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:49 → SAN 08:25AS 2288 · flown by Horizon	2h 09m San Diego	SAN 10:34 → IAD 18:45AS 506	8h 56m	98%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:22 → SEA 08:26AS 491	47m Seattle	SEA 09:13 → IAD 17:11AS 737	7h 49m	54%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON