Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:08 am at Oakland)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:30, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	2h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514	7h 20m	98%	79%
Alaska Details →	OAK 19:49 → SEA 21:50AS 1359	2h 07m Seattle	SEA 23:57 → IAH 06:20 +1AS 398	8h 31m	95%	73%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:22 → SEA 08:26AS 491	2h 26m Seattle	SEA 10:52 → IAH 17:16AS 438	8h 54m	100%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON