Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3175 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 3175 OAK 06:30 → LGB 08:01 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3057 OAK 19:20 → LGB 20:50 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3175 Southwest	OAK 06:30	LGB 08:01	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 264 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 07:30	LGB 08:55	4%	1%	0.6%	92%
WN 1328 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 10:30	LGB 11:55	6%	2%	0.5%	86%
WN 2951 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 14:30	LGB 15:55	14%	4%	0.5%	73%
WN 3057 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 19:20	LGB 20:50	14%	3%	0.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON