tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:05, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest 3h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069 9h 55m 100% 81%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 05:10 → MDW 11:15WN 2744 1h 30m Chicago MDW 12:45 → MCO 16:21WN 3884 8h 11m 100% 77%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 13:55 → HOU 19:40WN 4244 2h 10m Houston HOU 21:50 → MCO 01:11 +1WN 3075 8h 16m 98% 75%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 17:30 → LAX 18:55WN 4229 3h 10m Los Angeles LAX 22:05 → MCO 06:00 +1WN 2409 9h 30m 97% 74%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 05:00 → LAS 06:30WN 2325 4h 00m Las Vegas LAS 10:30 → MCO 17:53WN 1797 9h 53m 100% 73%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 13:25 → DEN 16:50WN 3043 2h 55m Denver DEN 19:45 → MCO 01:40 +1WN 1596 9h 15m 100% 73%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 17:37 → LAS 19:14WN 2274 3h 36m Las Vegas LAS 22:50 → MCO 06:25 +1WN 4590 9h 48m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest 2h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 11:23 → MCO 18:01DL 2024 9h 01m 98% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → OAK 19:45 → LAX 21:10WN 2396 55m Los Angeles LAX 22:05 → MCO 06:00 +1WN 2409 7h 15m 70% 53%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 13:55 → HOU 19:40WN 4244 50m Houston HOU 20:30 → MCO 23:51WN 4937 6h 56m 65% 38%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 12:15 → LAS 13:50WN 2205 50m Las Vegas LAS 14:40 → MCO 22:25WN 1225 7h 10m 52% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON