Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:30 am at Oakland); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:30, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops today


WN 3059 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 23:55	MDW 06:00	13%	2%	0.6%	66%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OAK 19:00 → ONT 20:20WN 271	3h 35m Ontario	ONT 23:55 → MDW 05:40 +1WN 3153	8h 40m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	OAK 07:35 → LAS 09:05WN 4348	2h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 11:20 → MDW 16:50WN 4506	7h 15m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	OAK 09:30 → SLC 12:15WN 4198	1h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:05 → MDW 18:05WN 3750	6h 35m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	OAK 08:15 → DEN 11:40WN 3042	2h 57m Denver	DEN 14:37 → MDW 18:02WN 1676	7h 47m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	OAK 20:15 → LAS 21:55WN 5051	2h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 23:55 → MDW 05:25 +1WN 2276	7h 10m	96%	77%
Southwest Details →	OAK 19:45 → LAX 21:10WN 2396	2h 45m Los Angeles	LAX 23:55 → MDW 05:55 +1WN 2413	8h 10m	99%	77%
Southwest Details →	OAK 09:00 → LAS 10:30WN 2374	1h 46m Las Vegas	LAS 12:16 → MDW 17:49WN 759	6h 49m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	OAK 14:55 → DEN 18:20WN 3044	2h 35m Denver	DEN 20:55 → MDW 00:21 +1WN 1683	7h 26m	99%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	OAK 13:25 → DEN 16:50WN 3043	1h 07m Denver	DEN 17:57 → MDW 21:22WN 2565	5h 57m	70%	49%
Southwest Details →	OAK 16:00 → LAX 17:25WN 3053	55m Los Angeles	LAX 18:20 → MDW 00:20 +1WN 4541	6h 20m	70%	47%
Southwest Details →	OAK 13:55 → HOU 19:40WN 4244	55m Houston	HOU 20:35 → MDW 23:05WN 2044	7h 10m	59%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON