Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:42 am at Oakland)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:30, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 41% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	1h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413	6h 59m	96%	77%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:57 → SEA 08:58AS 705	2h 58m Seattle	SEA 11:56 → ORD 17:56AS 579	8h 59m	98%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OAK 14:50 → SAN 16:26AS 3311 · flown by SkyWest	57m San Diego	SAN 17:23 → ORD 23:36AS 1493	6h 46m	52%	32%
Alaska Details →	OAK 14:55 → SEA 17:00AS 1464	48m Seattle	SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538	7h 04m	41%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON