Today: AS 3045 at 12:01 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–25%.

Safest bet today AS 3045 OAK 12:01 → PDX 13:44 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 4368 OAK 20:30 → PDX 22:05 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 3045 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OAK 12:01	PDX 13:44	12%	3%	0.2%	98%worse than usual
WN 581 Southwest	OAK 21:25	PDX 23:14	16%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 1577 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 13:05	PDX 14:40	16%	2%	0.1%	58%
WN 3565 Southwest	OAK 13:50	PDX 15:39	16%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 4368 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 20:30	PDX 22:05	25%	6%	0.5%	29%
AS 2298 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 07:52	PDX 09:29	4%	2%	0.0%	96%
AS 2096 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 19:13	PDX 20:50	68%	18%	6.7%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON