Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3188 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3188 OAK 05:00 → PHX 06:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 878 OAK 16:45 → PHX 18:45 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3188 Southwest	OAK 05:00	PHX 06:59	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3066 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 05:05	PHX 07:00	5%	1%	0.5%	98%
WN 3189 Southwest	OAK 08:21	PHX 10:24	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3190 Southwest	OAK 10:46	PHX 12:49	16%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4766 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 10:05	PHX 12:00	19%	2%	0.5%	94%worse than usual
WN 3070 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 20:40	PHX 22:45	25%	6%	0.5%	40%
WN 878 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 16:45	PHX 18:45	25%	6%	0.5%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON