Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3073 at 06:20, 8%.

Safest bet today WN 3073 OAK 06:20 → SAN 07:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 3076 OAK 14:15 → SAN 15:45 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Weather 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3073 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 06:20	SAN 07:55	8%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 3194 Southwest	OAK 06:25	SAN 08:04	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 207 Southwest	OAK 08:00	SAN 09:39	17%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3074 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 08:05	SAN 09:40	17%	2%	0.6%	83%
WN 4944 Southwest	OAK 09:45	SAN 11:25	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2780 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 10:10	SAN 11:40	31%	5%	0.6%	33%
WN 2981 Southwest	OAK 11:19	SAN 13:00	31%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 3313 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OAK 10:37	SAN 12:13	31%	14%	0.8%	75%
WN 4946 Southwest	OAK 12:15	SAN 13:56	32%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3075 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 12:15	SAN 13:45	35%	6%	0.6%	38%
WN 3200 Southwest	OAK 18:55	SAN 20:35	37%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 3201 Southwest	OAK 20:50	SAN 22:30	37%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 4947 Southwest	OAK 17:30	SAN 19:10	37%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 3077 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 18:25	SAN 20:00	38%	9%	0.7%	23%
WN 4871 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 20:30	SAN 22:05	39%	9%	0.7%	41%
OO 3050 SkyWest	OAK 15:16	SAN 16:59	39%	16%	1.0%	no record
AS 3311 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OAK 14:50	SAN 16:26	42%	14%	0.8%	60%
WN 5022 Southwest	OAK 13:10	SAN 14:40	43%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 3145 Southwest	OAK 14:30	SAN 16:10	43%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 1926 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 15:45	SAN 17:20	45%	9%	0.6%	35%
WN 3137 Southwest	OAK 16:00	SAN 17:39	45%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 3076 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 14:15	SAN 15:45	46%	9%	0.6%	46%
AS 2288 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 06:49	SAN 08:25	4%	2%	7.7%	96%
AS 2229 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 20:10	SAN 21:47	46%	6%	2.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON