Today: DL 1184 at 05:49 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–19%.

Safest bet today DL 1184 OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 2862 OKC 17:07 → ATL 20:29 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1184 Delta Flight history →	OKC 05:49	ATL 08:56	8%	3%	1.0%	93%
DL 1158 Delta Flight history →	OKC 07:00	ATL 10:10	8%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 843 Delta	OKC 08:40	ATL 11:23	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 2490 Delta Flight history →	OKC 11:09	ATL 14:17	14%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 2020 Delta Flight history →	OKC 13:18	ATL 16:30	15%	3%	1.0%	84%
DL 2862 Delta Flight history →	OKC 17:07	ATL 20:29	19%	3%	0.8%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON