Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:54 pm at Oklahoma City); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via DFW, leaving 16:38, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	OKC 16:38 → DFW 17:49AA 3730 · flown by Envoy	3h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:35 → AUS 22:39AA 972	6h 01m	99%	59%
Southwest Details →	OKC 16:15 → BNA 18:00WN 3108	3h 00m Nashville	BNA 21:00 → AUS 23:23WN 2372	7h 08m	97%	58%
American Details →	OKC 18:02 → DFW 19:15AA 3535 · flown by Envoy	3h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:50 → AUS 23:51AA 1588	5h 49m	100%	56%
Southwest Details →	OKC 18:10 → HOU 19:40WN 3117	2h 56m Houston	HOU 22:36 → AUS 23:39WN 1556	5h 29m	97%	55%
Southwest Details →	OKC 16:40 → DAL 17:45WN 1303	4h 00m Dallas	DAL 21:45 → AUS 22:50WN 1515	6h 10m	100%	55%
Delta Details →	OKC 17:07 → ATL 20:29DL 2862	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → AUS 00:18 +1DL 1335	7h 11m	96%	51%
American Details →	OKC 15:19 → DFW 16:33AA 2929	4h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:33 → AUS 21:37AA 2707	6h 18m	98%	51%
American Details →	OKC 15:04 → DFW 16:17AA 5362 · flown by PSA	2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:00 → AUS 20:03AA 789	4h 59m	95%	46%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	OKC 15:19 → DFW 16:33AA 2929	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:23 → AUS 18:30AA 3722 · flown by Envoy	3h 11m	61%	43%
Southwest Details →	OKC 16:15 → BNA 18:00WN 3108	46m Nashville	BNA 18:46 → AUS 21:10WN 165	4h 55m	56%	29%
Southwest Details →	OKC 14:00 → MCO 17:45WN 3120	55m Orlando	MCO 18:40 → AUS 20:30WN 4402	6h 30m	65%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON