Today: AA 2273 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet today AA 2273 OKC 06:40 → CLT 10:20 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3299 OKC 17:44 → CLT 21:25 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2273 American Flight history →	OKC 06:40	CLT 10:20	9%	4%	0.7%	90%
AA 1626 American Flight history →	OKC 10:22	CLT 13:52	19%	5%	0.6%	89%
AA 2220 American Flight history →	OKC 13:45	CLT 17:28	19%	4%	1.3%	79%
AA 2611 American	OKC 17:17	CLT 20:48	24%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 3299 American Flight history →	OKC 17:44	CLT 21:25	26%	6%	1.3%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON