Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1334 at 11:00 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 1334 OKC 11:00 → DCA 14:54 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5138 OKC 16:51 → DCA 20:59 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1334 Southwest	OKC 11:00	DCA 14:54	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3010 Southwest Flight history →	OKC 11:25	DCA 15:10	18%	5%	0.6%	73%
MQ 3509 Envoy	OKC 17:47	DCA 21:43	26%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 5138 American flown by PSA Flight history →	OKC 16:51	DCA 20:59	32%	16%	1.2%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON