Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 656 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 656 OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1760 OKC 16:42 → DFW 17:55 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 656 American Flight history →	OKC 05:01	DFW 06:07	7%	4%	0.6%	92%
AA 2464 American	OKC 04:59	DFW 06:11	9%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2170 American	OKC 05:59	DFW 07:05	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2272 American Flight history →	OKC 07:25	DFW 08:31	12%	5%	0.7%	86%
AA 3805 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OKC 11:10	DFW 12:18	15%	3%	0.7%	93%
AA 6203 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 08:25	DFW 09:44	15%	8%	0.4%	86%
AA 3731 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OKC 12:26	DFW 13:34	19%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 3727 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OKC 20:20	DFW 21:30	20%	4%	0.7%	70%
MQ 3591 Envoy	OKC 20:05	DFW 21:16	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 3729 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OKC 19:15	DFW 20:25	23%	5%	0.8%	71%
AA 2882 American	OKC 11:03	DFW 12:09	23%	5%	2.3%	no record
AA 3535 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OKC 18:02	DFW 19:15	25%	4%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
AA 3730 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OKC 16:38	DFW 17:49	26%	5%	0.7%	61%
AA 2734 American	OKC 12:32	DFW 13:45	28%	5%	2.3%	no record
AA 2929 American Flight history →	OKC 15:19	DFW 16:35	34%	7%	1.8%	72%
AA 2812 American Flight history →	OKC 19:05	DFW 20:23	36%	9%	1.8%	35%
AA 5362 American flown by PSA Flight history →	OKC 15:04	DFW 16:17	37%	10%	0.7%	59%
AA 1760 American	OKC 16:42	DFW 17:55	39%	6%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON