Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 5453 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 5453 OKC 05:04 → IAH 06:40 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1127 OKC 07:00 → IAH 08:28 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 5453 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 05:04	IAH 06:40	8%	5%	0.5%	90%
UA 5663 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 11:57	IAH 13:51	15%	6%	0.5%	98%worse than usual
UA 5531 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 13:43	IAH 15:25	16%	6%	0.5%	85%
UA 1262 United	OKC 06:56	IAH 08:26	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1127 United Flight history →	OKC 07:00	IAH 08:28	19%	5%	0.6%	63%
UA 3996 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	OKC 19:05	IAH 20:48	7%	4%	0.9%	93%
UA 6264 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	OKC 14:33	IAH 16:09	12%	9%	0.0%	88%
UA 6253 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	OKC 17:05	IAH 18:53	16%	5%	0.0%	84%
UA 6255 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	OKC 09:39	IAH 11:15	17%	3%	0.0%	83%
UA 6277 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	OKC 12:01	IAH 13:37	17%	11%	0.0%	83%
UA 4361 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	OKC 12:01	IAH 13:38	21%	12%	3.8%	79%
UA 4838 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	OKC 14:33	IAH 16:10	26%	11%	0.0%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON