Today: WN 1689 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–16%.

Safest bet today WN 1689 OKC 07:05 → LAS 07:46 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3119 OKC 20:50 → LAS 21:25 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1689 Southwest	OKC 07:05	LAS 07:46	4%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4496 Southwest	OKC 12:30	LAS 13:11	14%	2%	0.2%	no record
F9 3891 Frontier Flight history →	OKC 14:16	LAS 15:10	15%	7%	0.7%	85%
WN 4504 Southwest	OKC 20:40	LAS 21:23	15%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 4665 Southwest Flight history →	OKC 12:55	LAS 13:30	15%	2%	0.2%	83%
WN 3119 Southwest Flight history →	OKC 20:50	LAS 21:25	16%	5%	0.5%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON