Today: UA 5364 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–32%.

Safest bet today UA 5364 OKC 07:10 → ORD 09:37 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest OO 4744 OKC 17:48 → ORD 20:00 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5364 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 07:10	ORD 09:37	9%	4%	0.5%	87%
AA 6493 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 08:10	ORD 10:35	9%	5%	0.5%	85%
AA 4994 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 06:44	ORD 08:50	10%	4%	0.5%	63%
UA 5823 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 08:45	ORD 11:11	11%	4%	0.5%	78%
UA 2183 United	OKC 07:10	ORD 09:17	11%	4%	0.3%	no record
MQ 4170 Envoy	OKC 12:46	ORD 14:58	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 6204 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 11:04	ORD 13:32	15%	5%	0.5%	74%
UA 5621 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 12:40	ORD 15:00	20%	9%	0.6%	77%
UA 5867 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 13:24	ORD 15:49	22%	9%	0.7%	76%
AA 6274 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 19:30	ORD 22:00	22%	9%	0.7%	58%
OO 6300 SkyWest	OKC 13:49	ORD 15:59	22%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 6519 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 13:42	ORD 16:08	22%	9%	0.7%	72%
AA 6484 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 19:17	ORD 21:25	28%	9%	0.7%	65%
UA 5844 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 17:36	ORD 20:05	30%	9%	0.7%	66%
OO 4744 SkyWest	OKC 17:48	ORD 20:00	32%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON