Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:24 am at Oklahoma City); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Today: WN 3242 at 12:20 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet today WN 3242 OKC 12:20 → PHX 12:45 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5002 OKC 18:32 → PHX 19:02 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3242 Southwest	OKC 12:20	PHX 12:45	15%	3%	0.2%	no record
OO 6215 SkyWest	OKC 15:07	PHX 15:50	22%	11%	0.3%	no record
WN 3243 Southwest	OKC 21:15	PHX 21:39	23%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 6517 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 15:20	PHX 15:47	24%	11%	0.3%	76%
WN 3125 Southwest Flight history →	OKC 21:45	PHX 22:00	25%	8%	0.5%	57%
AA 6276 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 18:15	PHX 18:42	26%	14%	0.3%	71%
OO 5002 SkyWest	OKC 18:32	PHX 19:02	30%	14%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON