Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:01 pm at Oklahoma City); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 19:18, is the safest bet: 50% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	OKC 19:18 → ORD 21:25AA 6484 · flown by SkyWest	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 22:27 → SEA 00:59 +1AA 1459	7h 41m	80%	50%
American Details →	OKC 19:15 → DFW 20:25AA 3729 · flown by Envoy	2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487	7h 42m	96%	42%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	OKC 20:50 → LAS 21:25WN 3119	52m Las Vegas	LAS 22:17 → SEA 00:50 +1WN 2409	6h 00m	65%	35%
Southwest Details →	OKC 19:10 → DEN 20:05WN 1188	1h 05m Denver	DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10WN 3856	6h 00m	71%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON