Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:32 am at Omaha)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3126 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 16:15	BNA 18:00	22%	5%	0.5%	57%
WN 3244 Southwest	OMA 16:20	BNA 18:12	22%	4%	0.5%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OMA 05:25 → MDW 06:50WN 4504	1h 45m Chicago	MDW 08:35 → BNA 10:06WN 1529	4h 41m	97%	89%
United Details →	OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442	1h 11m Denver	DEN 08:00 → BNA 11:42UA 605	5h 42m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	3h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 15:29 → BNA 17:35DL 2612	6h 43m	98%	86%
United Details →	OMA 06:00 → ORD 07:55UA 5611 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Chicago	ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414	6h 29m	96%	85%
Southwest Details →	OMA 07:55 → STL 09:10WN 3139	3h 55m St Louis	STL 13:05 → BNA 14:21WN 1577	6h 26m	100%	84%
American Details →	OMA 11:48 → ORD 13:42AA 3739 · flown by Envoy	3h 29m Chicago	ORD 17:11 → BNA 18:54AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	7h 06m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:28 → DTW 13:30DL 4055 · flown by SkyWest	2h 31m Detroit	DTW 16:01 → BNA 16:40DL 2316	6h 12m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	OMA 08:05 → MSP 09:30DL 3512 · flown by SkyWest	3h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BNA 14:52DL 2843	6h 47m	97%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	OMA 12:57 → ORD 14:50UA 5587 · flown by SkyWest	50m Chicago	ORD 15:40 → BNA 17:13UA 1897	4h 16m	63%	48%
Southwest Details →	OMA 12:10 → PHX 12:50WN 2984	55m Phoenix	PHX 13:45 → BNA 19:00WN 2701	6h 50m	67%	48%
American Details →	OMA 16:19 → DFW 18:12AA 2269	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:14 → BNA 21:11AA 3169	4h 52m	66%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON