Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4857 Southwest	OMA 05:55	DAL 07:51	2%	1%	0.3%	no record
WN 4318 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 10:00	DAL 11:50	6%	2%	0.6%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OMA 05:25 → MDW 06:50WN 4504	2h 51m Chicago	MDW 09:41 → DAL 12:05WN 2864	6h 40m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	OMA 06:15 → DEN 06:50WN 3127	1h 55m Denver	DEN 08:45 → DAL 11:40WN 1360	5h 25m	98%	89%
Southwest Details →	OMA 08:20 → MDW 09:45WN 4316	2h 35m Chicago	MDW 12:20 → DAL 14:35WN 2757	6h 15m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	OMA 07:20 → PHX 08:05WN 4835	2h 50m Phoenix	PHX 10:55 → DAL 15:20WN 3255	8h 00m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	OMA 06:00 → LAS 06:50WN 2340	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 07:50 → DAL 12:40WN 1317	6h 40m	97%	83%
Southwest Details →	OMA 10:55 → MDW 12:20WN 1655	3h 35m Chicago	MDW 15:55 → DAL 18:19WN 198	7h 24m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	OMA 16:25 → MDW 17:50WN 4094	2h 50m Chicago	MDW 20:40 → DAL 22:55WN 1005	6h 30m	99%	80%
Southwest Details →	OMA 17:15 → STL 18:30WN 3365	3h 20m St Louis	STL 21:50 → DAL 23:30WN 3904	6h 15m	100%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON