Today: WN 3246 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–27%.

Safest bet today WN 3246 OMA 07:00 → DEN 07:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3128 OMA 13:10 → DEN 13:45 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3246 Southwest	OMA 07:00	DEN 07:38	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3127 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 06:15	DEN 06:50	5%	1%	0.1%	95%
UA 1442 United Flight history →	OMA 06:00	DEN 06:49	6%	2%	0.1%	94%
OO 5935 SkyWest	OMA 11:39	DEN 12:48	10%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 5594 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 11:30	DEN 12:26	11%	4%	0.2%	92%
UA 2838 United Flight history →	OMA 09:06	DEN 09:55	13%	3%	0.1%	76%
UA 5316 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 19:00	DEN 19:58	16%	3%	0.7%	79%
OO 5504 SkyWest	OMA 19:10	DEN 20:19	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1195 United Flight history →	OMA 13:48	DEN 14:35	17%	3%	0.2%	85%
WN 1788 Southwest	OMA 10:56	DEN 11:35	17%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 3353 Southwest	OMA 17:00	DEN 17:37	19%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1709 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 18:10	DEN 18:55	20%	3%	0.5%	31%
WN 2060 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 10:20	DEN 10:55	21%	2%	0.2%	71%
WN 1516 Southwest	OMA 19:20	DEN 19:57	21%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1943 United Flight history →	OMA 17:27	DEN 18:15	22%	4%	0.6%	71%
WN 3050 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 19:30	DEN 20:10	22%	4%	0.5%	42%
UA 1573 United	OMA 17:12	DEN 17:51	23%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 1127 Frontier Flight history →	OMA 20:00	DEN 20:50	27%	5%	0.7%	70%
WN 3128 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 13:10	DEN 13:45	30%	2%	0.2%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON