Today: AA 2899 at 09:53 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–36%.

Safest bet today AA 2899 OMA 09:53 → DFW 11:50 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 2270 OMA 19:28 → DFW 21:20 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 2899 American Flight history →	OMA 09:53	DFW 11:50	20%	4%	0.6%	82%
AA 2135 American	OMA 10:24	DFW 12:23	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2226 American Flight history →	OMA 12:06	DFW 14:00	23%	6%	0.6%	77%
AA 2823 American Flight history →	OMA 12:08	DFW 14:05	24%	6%	0.6%	63%
AA 2269 American Flight history →	OMA 16:18	DFW 18:11	31%	8%	0.7%	75%
AA 2232 American Flight history →	OMA 19:46	DFW 21:44	31%	7%	1.3%	48%
AA 2229 American Flight history →	OMA 16:58	DFW 19:01	33%	9%	0.7%	42%
AA 2270 American Flight history →	OMA 19:28	DFW 21:20	36%	8%	1.3%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON