Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2340 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 2340 OMA 06:00 → LAS 06:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 2238 OMA 19:45 → LAS 20:36 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2340 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 06:00	LAS 06:50	3%	1%	0.2%	95%
WN 3570 Southwest	OMA 06:39	LAS 07:33	3%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2673 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 11:50	LAS 12:40	11%	2%	0.5%	79%
G4 74 Allegiant Flight history →	OMA 12:11	LAS 13:04	12%	4%	0.6%	86%
WN 3250 Southwest	OMA 14:40	LAS 15:32	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2844 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 20:30	LAS 21:25	16%	4%	0.5%	46%
WN 2238 Southwest	OMA 19:45	LAS 20:36	19%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON