Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 17–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 3848 OMA 13:40 → MSP 15:02 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest OO 3936 OMA 17:38 → MSP 18:59 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 3848 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 13:40	MSP 15:02	17%	4%	0.2%	80%
OO 3946 SkyWest	OMA 13:42	MSP 15:02	17%	4%	0.2%	no record
DL 3948 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 17:40	MSP 19:04	24%	4%	0.2%	84%
OO 3936 SkyWest	OMA 17:38	MSP 18:59	26%	4%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON