Today: AA 3738 at 19:48 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–23%.

Safest bet today AA 3738 OMA 19:48 → ORD 21:42 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest UA 1476 OMA 18:40 → ORD 20:34 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3738 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OMA 19:48	ORD 21:42	9%	3%	0.8%	73%
AA 3739 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OMA 11:48	ORD 13:42	11%	3%	0.3%	88%
OO 5385 SkyWest	OMA 08:05	ORD 09:53	12%	3%	0.2%	no record
MQ 3558 Envoy	OMA 20:04	ORD 21:30	14%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4724 American flown by Republic Flight history →	OMA 18:25	ORD 20:37	15%	4%	0.3%	72%
UA 600 United Flight history →	OMA 11:23	ORD 13:15	16%	4%	0.2%	80%
UA 5587 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 12:57	ORD 14:50	17%	4%	0.2%	71%
AA 4042 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OMA 16:04	ORD 17:45	19%	4%	0.3%	93%worse than usual
OO 5511 SkyWest	OMA 13:10	ORD 15:06	19%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 739 United Flight history →	OMA 15:13	ORD 17:05	20%	4%	0.2%	69%
UA 1476 United Flight history →	OMA 18:40	ORD 20:34	23%	6%	0.2%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON