Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2892 ONT 22:00 → ATL 05:18 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest DL 665 ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2892 Delta Flight history →	ONT 22:00	ATL 05:18	12%	4%	0.6%	97%
DL 2891 Delta Flight history →	ONT 21:58	ATL 05:11	14%	4%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
DL 665 Delta Flight history →	ONT 11:48	ATL 19:15	15%	4%	0.7%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON