Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4996 Southwest	ONT 10:05	BNA 15:54	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3142 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 09:45	BNA 15:35	15%	3%	0.5%	54%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ONT 06:30 → SJC 07:50WN 383	1h 00m San Jose	SJC 08:50 → BNA 15:05WN 3657	6h 35m	100%	87%
United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 30m Denver	DEN 09:50 → BNA 13:33UA 1048	6h 33m	97%	86%
Southwest Details →	ONT 05:30 → LAS 06:35WN 3150	1h 37m Las Vegas	LAS 08:12 → BNA 13:46WN 646	6h 16m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	ONT 18:30 → SMF 19:55WN 3170	3h 10m Sacramento	SMF 23:05 → BNA 05:10 +1WN 3759	8h 40m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	ONT 09:40 → SLC 12:28DL 1302	1h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → BNA 18:13DL 2205	6h 33m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	ONT 05:50 → DEN 09:05WN 3144	1h 18m Denver	DEN 10:23 → BNA 13:56WN 1545	6h 06m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	ONT 13:00 → SLC 15:47DL 3172	2h 58m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:45 → BNA 23:05DL 2317	8h 05m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	ONT 05:15 → PHX 06:30WN 864	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 07:50 → BNA 13:10WN 719	5h 55m	96%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ONT 14:05 → SEA 16:45AS 567	46m Seattle	SEA 17:31 → BNA 23:59AS 416	7h 54m	63%	48%
Alaska Details →	ONT 14:10 → SEA 16:46AS 575	47m Seattle	SEA 17:33 → BNA 23:49AS 450	7h 39m	64%	48%
American Details →	ONT 14:14 → DFW 19:21AA 2635	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:15 → BNA 22:10AA 1500	5h 56m	67%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON