tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:51 am at Ontario)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Phoenix, leaving 19:32, is the safest bet: 61% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2237 American Flight history → ONT 22:10 CLT 05:48 13% 4% 0.6% 85%
AA 1706 American ONT 23:14 CLT 06:44 16% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → ONT 19:32 → PHX 20:54AA 1666 2h 19m Phoenix PHX 23:13 → CLT 06:08 +1AA 2821 7h 36m 95% 81%
AmericanDetails → ONT 19:15 → PHX 20:36AA 2639 2h 59m Phoenix PHX 23:35 → CLT 06:35 +1AA 849 8h 20m 94% 77%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:35 → DFW 17:50AA 2242 3h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:25 → CLT 00:59 +1AA 2409 9h 24m 100% 63%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 1h 07m Denver DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08UA 616 6h 50m 84% 59%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:41 → DFW 17:48AA 2956 2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:10 → CLT 23:38AA 460 7h 57m 95% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:35 → DFW 17:50AA 2242 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:54 → CLT 22:38AA 1229 7h 03m 71% 46%
AmericanDetails → ONT 14:14 → DFW 19:21AA 2635 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:10 → CLT 23:38AA 460 6h 24m 63% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON