Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: WN 2744 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day


WN 2744 Southwest	ONT 06:40	DAL 11:40	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3247 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 16:20	DAL 21:15	23%	6%	0.7%	58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ONT 05:50 → DEN 09:05WN 3144	1h 43m Denver	DEN 10:48 → DAL 13:45WN 1408	5h 55m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	ONT 05:30 → LAS 06:35WN 3150	1h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 07:50 → DAL 12:40WN 1317	5h 10m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	ONT 05:15 → PHX 06:30WN 864	1h 30m Phoenix	PHX 08:00 → DAL 12:25WN 875	5h 10m	95%	84%
Southwest Details →	ONT 08:00 → PHX 09:15WN 4421	1h 40m Phoenix	PHX 10:55 → DAL 15:20WN 3255	5h 20m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	ONT 14:00 → AUS 18:50WN 300	3h 05m Austin	AUS 21:55 → DAL 23:05WN 280	7h 05m	98%	82%
Southwest Details →	ONT 09:40 → HOU 14:50WN 4868	2h 40m Houston	HOU 17:30 → DAL 18:40WN 46	7h 00m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	ONT 13:20 → SMF 14:40WN 2298	2h 45m Sacramento	SMF 17:25 → DAL 22:50WN 3772	7h 30m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	ONT 06:30 → SJC 07:50WN 383	3h 50m San Jose	SJC 11:40 → DAL 17:05WN 965	8h 35m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ONT 16:40 → LAS 17:45WN 2213	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 18:45 → DAL 23:30WN 2221	4h 50m	71%	53%
Southwest Details →	ONT 12:40 → LAS 13:45WN 3151	55m Las Vegas	LAS 14:40 → DAL 19:25WN 4489	4h 45m	72%	50%
Southwest Details →	ONT 12:45 → PHX 14:00WN 3062	50m Phoenix	PHX 14:50 → DAL 19:15WN 1937	4h 30m	64%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON