tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:10 → ORD 12:25UA 2171 2h 35m Chicago ORD 15:00 → DCA 18:11UA 1941 9h 01m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820 7h 35m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 10m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 6h 59m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 29m Phoenix PHX 08:59 → DCA 16:40AA 1620 7h 29m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → ONT 07:01 → ORD 13:04UA 2226 3h 14m Chicago ORD 16:18 → DCA 19:24UA 2812 9h 23m 98% 75%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 05:30 → LAS 06:35WN 3150 2h 50m Las Vegas LAS 09:25 → DCA 16:52WN 4360 8h 22m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 55m San Francisco SFO 08:20 → DCA 16:47UA 1678 7h 47m 89% 73%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 9h 04m 98% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON