Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3144 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 3–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 3144 ONT 05:50 → DEN 09:05 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 3147 ONT 14:30 → DEN 17:40 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 24% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3144 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 05:50	DEN 09:05	3%	1%	0.2%	97%
WN 4115 Southwest	ONT 05:40	DEN 08:56	3%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3263 Southwest	ONT 08:06	DEN 11:23	6%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 2446 United Flight history →	ONT 05:00	DEN 08:20	7%	3%	0.4%	94%
WN 3145 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 08:00	DEN 11:10	8%	2%	0.4%	95%
F9 1500 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 06:00	DEN 09:24	10%	5%	0.6%	90%
WN 3291 Southwest	ONT 12:41	DEN 15:57	13%	3%	0.4%	no record
F9 2908 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 10:49	DEN 14:10	16%	5%	0.7%	77%
WN 3146 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 12:50	DEN 16:05	17%	4%	0.4%	39%
UA 1263 United Flight history →	ONT 13:18	DEN 16:38	17%	5%	0.5%	84%
WN 3264 Southwest	ONT 14:50	DEN 18:06	21%	5%	0.4%	no record
WN 3147 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 14:30	DEN 17:40	22%	5%	0.4%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON