Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1412 at 05:34 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1412 ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2239 ONT 14:15 → DFW 19:30 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1412 American Flight history →	ONT 05:34	DFW 10:41	8%	3%	2.1%	89%
AA 2893 American Flight history →	ONT 07:00	DFW 12:09	9%	3%	2.1%	87%
AA 1578 American	ONT 07:06	DFW 12:23	10%	3%	2.1%	no record
AA 1112 American	ONT 00:09	DFW 05:06	13%	4%	2.6%	no record
AA 2238 American Flight history →	ONT 10:25	DFW 15:37	15%	5%	1.3%	81%
F9 4690 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 08:17	DFW 13:31	20%	5%	1.0%	76%
AA 3006 American Flight history →	ONT 23:59	DFW 05:00	20%	5%	1.8%	70%
AA 2242 American Flight history →	ONT 12:35	DFW 17:50	22%	5%	1.3%	75%
AA 2239 American Flight history →	ONT 14:15	DFW 19:30	28%	7%	1.2%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON