tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:19 am at Ontario)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Portland, leaving 17:32, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → ONT 17:32 → PDX 19:49AS 2456 · flown by Horizon 1h 42m Portland PDX 21:31 → EWR 05:59 +1AS 1631 9h 27m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 7h 49m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:10 → ORD 12:25UA 2171 2h 00m Chicago ORD 14:25 → EWR 18:00UA 2329 8h 50m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552 10h 10m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:45 → IAH 11:04UA 1936 2h 42m Houston IAH 13:46 → EWR 18:30UA 1397 9h 45m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 47m Denver DEN 10:07 → EWR 16:06UA 2381 8h 06m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → ONT 17:10 → SLC 20:03DL 4443 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038 9h 50m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 05m Phoenix PHX 08:35 → EWR 16:37AA 3041 7h 26m 93% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 1h 05m San Francisco SFO 16:20 → EWR 01:10 +1UA 2626 8h 20m 74% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON