Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:08 am at Ontario)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: WN 4868 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops today


WN 4868 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 09:40	HOU 14:50	16%	4%	0.3%	69%
WN 4907 Southwest	ONT 14:40	HOU 19:52	28%	7%	0.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ONT 05:30 → LAS 06:35WN 3150	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 07:45 → HOU 12:55WN 981	5h 25m	98%	88%
Southwest Details →	ONT 06:30 → SJC 07:50WN 383	1h 30m San Jose	SJC 09:20 → HOU 15:10WN 3673	6h 40m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	ONT 05:15 → PHX 06:30WN 864	1h 15m Phoenix	PHX 07:45 → HOU 12:24WN 3397	5h 09m	95%	84%
Southwest Details →	ONT 08:00 → PHX 09:15WN 4421	1h 22m Phoenix	PHX 10:37 → HOU 15:17WN 1049	5h 17m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	ONT 05:50 → DEN 09:05WN 3144	1h 35m Denver	DEN 10:40 → HOU 14:06WN 1597	6h 16m	100%	76%
American Details →	ONT 10:25 → DFW 15:37AA 2238	2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:28 → HOU 20:05AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	7h 40m	97%	72%
Southwest Details →	ONT 12:50 → DEN 16:05WN 3146	2h 35m Denver	DEN 18:40 → HOU 22:15WN 606	7h 25m	98%	72%
Southwest Details →	ONT 06:00 → SMF 07:25WN 3165	3h 35m Sacramento	SMF 11:00 → HOU 16:45WN 3782	8h 45m	100%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ONT 12:40 → DFW 17:47AA 2956	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:34 → HOU 19:53AA 3351 · flown by Envoy	5h 13m	63%	46%
Southwest Details →	ONT 12:40 → LAS 13:45WN 3151	56m Las Vegas	LAS 14:41 → HOU 19:41WN 3524	5h 01m	64%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON