tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:10 → ORD 12:25UA 2171 2h 30m Chicago ORD 14:55 → IAD 17:55UA 587 8h 45m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → ONT 18:39 → SFO 20:07UA 5624 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m San Francisco SFO 23:05 → IAD 07:30 +1UA 1083 9h 51m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 2h 00m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087 7h 53m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 9h 53m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → ONT 13:00 → SLC 15:47DL 3172 1h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847 7h 29m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:45 → IAH 11:04UA 1936 3h 52m Houston IAH 14:56 → IAD 19:15UA 1178 10h 30m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 10h 11m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest 1h 14m Seattle SEA 16:05 → IAD 00:08 +1DL 541 9h 09m 94% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON