Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1936 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1936 ONT 05:45 → IAH 11:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 2412 ONT 09:32 → IAH 14:52 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1936 United Flight history →	ONT 05:45	IAH 11:04	5%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 2267 United	ONT 05:59	IAH 11:27	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 2412 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 09:32	IAH 14:52	24%	5%	0.9%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON