Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops today


B6 454 JetBlue Flight history →	ONT 23:51	JFK 08:13	26%	9%	0.8%	72%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ONT 17:10 → SLC 20:03DL 4443 · flown by SkyWest	3h 56m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:59 → JFK 06:18 +1DL 705	10h 08m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → JFK 00:50 +1DL 1632	10h 02m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	ONT 18:01 → SEA 20:50DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452	9h 49m	97%	82%
Alaska Details →	ONT 17:32 → PDX 19:49AS 2456 · flown by Horizon	1h 39m Portland	PDX 21:28 → JFK 05:28 +1AS 336	8h 56m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	7h 47m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest	1h 13m Seattle	SEA 16:04 → JFK 00:06 +1DL 1044	9h 07m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:20 → SEA 09:15DL 3816 · flown by SkyWest	2h 19m Seattle	SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415	10h 55m	96%	78%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	1h 45m Phoenix	PHX 09:15 → JFK 17:28AA 2689	8h 17m	95%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ONT 19:32 → PHX 20:54AA 1666	56m Phoenix	PHX 21:50 → JFK 05:47 +1AA 1587	7h 15m	73%	60%
American Details →	ONT 10:15 → DFW 15:22AA 1820	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:13 → JFK 21:00AA 578	7h 45m	70%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON