Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2371 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 2371 ONT 05:30 → LAS 06:40 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2213 ONT 16:40 → LAS 17:45 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 34% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2371 Southwest	ONT 05:30	LAS 06:40	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3150 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 05:30	LAS 06:35	4%	1%	0.5%	97%
WN 442 Southwest	ONT 08:40	LAS 09:50	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2333 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 08:35	LAS 09:40	8%	2%	0.5%	85%
F9 2232 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 07:53	LAS 09:12	16%	6%	1.0%	84%
WN 3151 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 12:40	LAS 13:45	20%	3%	0.5%	64%
WN 372 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 21:40	LAS 22:50	20%	6%	0.6%	64%
WN 3268 Southwest	ONT 13:30	LAS 14:40	21%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 4758 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 15:40	LAS 16:51	28%	10%	0.9%	70%
WN 2213 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 16:40	LAS 17:45	29%	8%	0.6%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON