tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:39 am at Ontario)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:48, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 8h 36m 95% 75%
UnitedDetails → ONT 07:01 → ORD 13:04UA 2226 2h 17m Chicago ORD 15:21 → LGA 18:39UA 2133 8h 38m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → ONT 07:05 → ATL 14:23DL 761 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:20DL 997 9h 15m 98% 71%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 09:40 → HOU 14:50WN 4868 2h 35m Houston HOU 17:25 → LGA 21:46WN 3543 9h 06m 100% 65%
AmericanDetails → ONT 10:25 → DFW 15:37AA 2238 3h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:13 → LGA 23:45AA 2708 10h 20m 97% 64%
AmericanDetails → ONT 07:00 → DFW 12:09AA 2893 1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:54 → LGA 18:28AA 1535 8h 28m 95% 61%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 08:00 → DEN 11:10WN 3145 3h 55m Denver DEN 15:05 → LGA 20:50WN 4233 9h 50m 97% 61%
AmericanDetails → ONT 10:14 → DFW 15:22AA 1820 2h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:00 → LGA 22:24AA 2570 9h 10m 94% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON