Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:46 am at Ontario)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Seattle, leaving 18:01, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ONT 18:01 → SEA 20:50DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest	2h 25m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448	10h 39m	97%	82%
Southwest Details →	ONT 18:30 → SMF 19:55WN 3170	2h 35m Sacramento	SMF 22:30 → MCO 06:34 +1WN 3943	9h 04m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	ONT 17:10 → SLC 20:03DL 4443 · flown by SkyWest	3h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069	9h 50m	96%	80%
United Details →	ONT 07:01 → ORD 13:04UA 2226	1h 44m Chicago	ORD 14:48 → MCO 18:39UA 2654	8h 38m	97%	76%
Southwest Details →	ONT 08:00 → DEN 11:10WN 3145	3h 00m Denver	DEN 14:10 → MCO 20:05WN 1495	9h 05m	97%	74%
Southwest Details →	ONT 12:50 → DEN 16:05WN 3146	3h 40m Denver	DEN 19:45 → MCO 01:40 +1WN 1596	9h 50m	99%	71%
Southwest Details →	ONT 20:45 → PHX 22:00WN 3160	1h 05m Phoenix	PHX 23:05 → MCO 06:20 +1WN 4508	6h 35m	80%	69%
American Details →	ONT 16:26 → PHX 17:51AA 2859	4h 00m Phoenix	PHX 21:51 → MCO 05:00 +1AA 563	9h 34m	93%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ONT 20:45 → PHX 22:00WN 3160	56m Phoenix	PHX 22:56 → MCO 06:07 +1WN 3424	6h 22m	75%	60%
American Details →	ONT 19:31 → PHX 20:54AA 1666	57m Phoenix	PHX 21:51 → MCO 05:00 +1AA 563	6h 29m	74%	54%
Southwest Details →	ONT 12:40 → LAS 13:45WN 3151	55m Las Vegas	LAS 14:40 → MCO 22:25WN 1225	6h 45m	67%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON