tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 41% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3270 Southwest ONT 00:05 MDW 05:49 11% 3% 0.3% no record
WN 3153 Southwest Flight history → ONT 23:55 MDW 05:40 12% 3% 0.5% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ONT 05:30 → LAS 06:35WN 3150 1h 41m Las Vegas LAS 08:16 → MDW 13:49WN 2336 6h 19m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 05:50 → DEN 09:05WN 3144 1h 25m Denver DEN 10:30 → MDW 13:54WN 1675 6h 04m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 05:15 → PHX 06:30WN 864 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 07:30 → MDW 12:50WN 3296 5h 35m 95% 87%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 18:35 → SJC 19:45WN 3164 3h 10m San Jose SJC 22:55 → MDW 05:00 +1WN 3886 8h 25m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 18:30 → SMF 19:55WN 3170 3h 55m Sacramento SMF 23:50 → MDW 05:45 +1WN 3802 9h 15m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 19:30 → OAK 20:50WN 3082 3h 05m Oakland OAK 23:55 → MDW 06:00 +1WN 3059 8h 30m 96% 83%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 06:30 → SJC 07:50WN 383 2h 15m San Jose SJC 10:05 → MDW 16:10WN 4357 7h 40m 100% 81%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 08:00 → PHX 09:15WN 4421 3h 06m Phoenix PHX 12:21 → MDW 17:49WN 1181 7h 49m 100% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → ONT 08:00 → PHX 09:15WN 4421 46m Phoenix PHX 10:01 → MDW 15:30WN 4245 5h 30m 41% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON