tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:10, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 17:10 → SLC 20:03DL 4443 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040 9h 30m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → ONT 18:39 → SFO 20:07UA 5624 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m San Francisco SFO 22:54 → MIA 07:39 +1UA 1769 10h 00m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 21m Denver DEN 09:41 → MIA 15:51UA 1418 7h 51m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 1h 15m San Francisco SFO 08:40 → MIA 17:29UA 2029 8h 29m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → ONT 19:15 → PHX 20:36AA 2639 2h 29m Phoenix PHX 23:05 → MIA 06:28 +1AA 2654 8h 13m 95% 76%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 09m Phoenix PHX 08:39 → MIA 16:15AA 1968 7h 04m 92% 75%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 09:45 → BNA 15:35WN 3142 3h 40m Nashville BNA 19:15 → MIA 22:40WN 4575 9h 55m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234 8h 51m 97% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → ONT 20:17 → LAS 21:38F9 4206 51m Las Vegas LAS 22:29 → MIA 06:30 +1F9 4552 7h 13m 71% 44%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:41 → DFW 17:48AA 2956 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:41 → MIA 22:37AA 2050 6h 56m 71% 44%
AmericanDetails → ONT 14:15 → DFW 19:30AA 2239 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:20 → MIA 00:11 +1AA 2090 6h 56m 62% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON